What to expect from Unai Emery

“Why must we look to the past in order to predict our future?  For there is nowhere else to look.”

Well there is truth to the quote by James Burke, it’s why teams spend unlimited hours and resources on team and player analysis, but as is true in life it is true in football, prior success does not guarantee future prosperity.  Regardless, we will thumb through Unai Emery’s playbook during his time with Valencia, Sevilla and PSG to see what can be learned.

Unai Emery first coached in the Spanish first division when he joined Valencia for the 2008/09 season.  It was a rebuilding period for Valencia, but he had shown promise after spells with Lorca and Almeria and was handed his opportunity.  in his first season in La Liga he helped Valencia qualify for the EUFA Europa League, and in all three subsequent seasons Valencia finished third in La Liga, hence qualifying for the Champions League.  Emery joined Sevilla in January of 2013 where he stayed until the end of the 2015/16 season.  He solidified his reputation there, enjoying significant success including winning three consecutive EUFA Cups and finishing in the top five of La Liga in all three seasons.  During his time in Spain he fairly consistently played a 4-2-3-1 formation, but after moving to PSG in the summer of 2016 his set up was less consistent.  PSG is the first club he took over which was not in need of a complete overhaul, and although there were times Emery tried to implement his more preferred formation, he frequently played the 4-3-3 set up he had inherited by his predecessor Laurent Blanc.

Predicting the Future

We have been given a few hints to help us predict the formation Emery will play.  He has stated that he would like to build the team around Aaron Ramsey, and we believe he is close to signing Lucas Torreira from Sampodoria who is touted to partner Granit Xhaka in the defensive midfield position.  We have not heard much about how Emery plans to utilize Mesut Ozil, but we would assume the highest salaried player at the club will be in the mix come the end of summer.  So just to fit these players into the centre of midfield it is difficult to see how a 4-3-3 formation could be implemented.  It would require two of the four aformentioned players to be pushed out wide, which would not favour their natural constituency.  Additionally, there have been implications that Torreira is to partner Granit Xhaka in the central midfield position, which would obviously not work with this formation.  So we can dismiss this formation as being very unlikely to be utilized.

More likely Emery will use his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation.  This is also the formation Wenger championed at the end of his career, and the formation the Arsenal  players will be most familiar with.  It is understandable how a partnership of Xhaka and Torreira makes sense with this formation and it fits in one more central midfielder as well.  I would prefer Ozil in the number 10 position, but given Emery’s admiration for Aaron Ramsey I have predicted him to play here, with Ozil played out narrowly on the left.  As Ramsey is more of a box-to-box player and Ozil thrives behind the striker, I will hope this prediction is wrong.

As with the 4-3-3 formation, the 4-2-3-1 also leaves the dilemma of how to play Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre Aubameyang together.  Both of these formations play a single striker, which would require one of them to be pushed out wide if Emery were to try and play them simultaneously.

Arsenal spent €53m on Lacazette last summer, then dropped €64 on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the winter transfer window.  Lacazette was slow to settle at the club finding goals hard to come by.  By Christmas the Arsenal ship was sinking and a top four finish was already looking unlikely, and so in desperation Wenger pushed through the purchase of the Gabonese international.  But panic buy or not, Aubameyang is a proven goalscorer, and at age 29 he needs to be utilized immediately.  Lacazette at 27 is also in the prime of his career, and there is no reason to think he won’t be able to settle in nicely and should also be on the pitch as much as possible.

Which brings us to the 4-4-2 formation.  This is not a formation Emery has favoured, and it has been almost a decade since we have seen two strikers played by Arsenal, but Arsene Wenger did have considerable success with this set up in his earlier years.  The obvious advantage of playing two strikers is that it would allow Emery to play Arsenal’s two most expensive transfers together.  I think fans were surprised Wenger didn’t partner Lacazette and Aubameyang in the latter stages of last season, especially considering they really had nothing to lose by that point.  Although this formation would solve one issue, it does not answer the problem of how to pack Arsenal’s plethora of naturally central players into the midfield.  The 4-1-2-1-2 variation of the 4-4-2 plays a much narrower version however, and could be the solution.

The midfield diamond would allow Emery to pack the central midfield area thus accommodating the personal at his disposal.  I really like this option, with the caveat that Xhaka might be a liability if he is delegated to help out the wingback on his side.  As Emery is an admirer of Xhaha, he was penned in, but in my opinion the capable Ainsley Maitland-Niles would be a better option here and has earned his chance at a starting role.

Playing Lacazette and Aubameyang together as dual strikers could prove an opposing force, and a very exciting prospect for Arsenal fans.  However, the clear weakness of this formation is that it exposes the wingback significantly, and although Bellerin and Monreal seem up to the task of playing box to box, and Torreira (if he arrives) would provide good cover in front of the defence, I am concerned Xhaka lacks the athleticism to help out sufficiently on his side of the diamond, and as mentioned Maitland-Niles might be a better option.  Elneny would also likely cover this position well, but again there have been inclinations that Emery will partner Torreira with Xhaka in the midfield, and also Xhaka would make more of an offensive contribution.  Alternatively, it may be that Torreira would be expected to stay very deep to cover both wing backs when they push forward.

In any case, Unai Emery has shown himself to be a formidable tactician and deserves the trust of the Arsenal hierarchy and fans.  He elevated Valencia and Sevilla back to the upper echelon of La Liga during his time at the clubs, and I am not sure we can glean much from his time at PSG, but at minimum in his last season with the club he did win the domestic treble.  So I think we are all excited to see what he will bring to Arsenal.