On the eve of Arsenal’s opening game of the 2018/19 season against defending champions Manchester City, there is a new hope around our club. Expectations are high. There have been numerous changes including a new manager, five new players coming in, and the expectation that several young talents could rise to prominence this year. As an Arsenal fan it easy to get excited and lose ones objectiveness. It is easy to see the changes and assume their most positive impact and predict a top 4 finish. But is this all wishful thinking? More technically termed ‘desirability bias‘, this psychological phenomenon is hugely common among sports fans. But the truth is that sport is highly unpredictable, and it is impossible to know how the new players will fair in the premier league, how they will gel with the team, how the managers new tactics will work, and it is impossible to predict how the other teams have strengthened over the transfer window.
It is easy to look to our fierce rivals Spurs and see that they have not strengthened, with a record 0 transfers in the window. Certainly we must finish above them with all the activity we have had! Chelsea have had a rocky summer and look to be the other team we are hoping to leap frog into the Champions League qualifying spots, but if we look down the table, there are also those predicting West Ham has made positive changes and have a chance at challenging us for a EUFA cup spot. In fact, we have provided our cross city rivals with Jack Wilshere and Lucas Perez in their effort to strengthen their ranks.
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Given our desirability bias to see our team do well, the truth is it is impossible to predict the season ahead. We need not look back too far for examples of the unpredictability of football. Who would have thought Germany would be knocked out of the World Cup in the first round? Who could have seen Leicster City winning the Premier League a couple of years ago? There are countless example, but for the most part we are pretty good at predicting the top 6 in the premier league.
To neutralize our desirability bias, we can look to non Arsenal supporters and see what they think of our chances. To start with the positives, NBC sports and Eurosport have predicted a top 4 finish for Arsenal. But on the negative side, there are more pundits that are predicting a third season out of the top four. Here in Canada only one of the eight pundits for sportsnet think that Arsenal will crack the top four this year. 6 of 24 pundits for BBC have predicted Arsenal to finish fourth (none higher than fourth), and of course a few of these were ex Arsenal players who likely share our desirability bias. And giants Skysport and Skybet have us predicted as finishing sixth while Forbes predicts fifth overall.
But the reality is that not even the professional pundits can predict the season. Most of them had Germany or Brazil winning the World Cup! So with cautious optimism and a few wins on the road and a few big wins against top 4 clubs this year it is quite fathomable that we could finish above Spurs and Chelsea! I think finishing above City, Liverpool, or United (in that order) would definitely exceed expectations for the year, but we can dream!
