The Opposition
Not only will Saturdays game be an early season test for the cross London rivals, but it also foreshadows what could be a season long battle between the two teams as both clubs try to regain a place in the top four. Both clubs have struggled to obtain Champions League qualification the last few years, and both teams find themselves in a state of transition with new managers and new tactics.
Chelsea looked to be in turmoil early in the transfer window, with rumors swirling around Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois leaving the club, and slow progress on finding a replacement for Antonio Conte following his unceremonious departure. Courtois of course did exit the club at the last minute, but in their favour Chelsea were able to find a quality replacement for Conte in Maurizio Sarri, who previously spent three years with Napoli moulding them into genuine contenders. Sarri was also able to persuade 26 year old star midfielder Jorghino to join him in London for a transfer fee of £50m. The Brazilian, who has been capped by Italy had been rumored to be in discussions with Manchester City, with his old boss apparently assisting in hijacking any deal that may have been close. Chelsea also brought in midfielder Mateo Kovacic from Real Madrid on a season long loan and broke the record for a goaltender transfer fee, bringing in Kepa Arrizabagala from Athletic Bilbao for a staggering £72m. The fee was more than Arsenal’s entire spending this summer, and was double what Chelsea got for Courtois. But a replacement for the impressive Courtois was imperative.
In the end, Chelsea appear to have done some good business this summer, even if it did come in the ninth hour, and with an opening day 3-0 win against Huddersfield Town, the West London fans have new found optimism.
The Tactics
Sarri has preferred a 4-3-3 formation during his time at Napoli, with a high pressing defensive strategy. He took no time to establish this formation with Chelsea, abandoning Conte’s backline of 3 immediately. Huddersfield Town may not have been the stiffest of opposition, but regardless his team did well with the quick transition. Sarri and Emery prefer a very similar style of modern football, both having utilized the 4-3-3 for most of their career, although Emery stuck with Arsenal’s more familiar 4-2-3-1 in his opening game against City. Both managers prefer possession based football, with build up play starting from the goalkeeper, and utilizing passing triangles to work the ball up the field and draw the opposition toward them. We saw Chelsea do this more successfully than Arsenal in their opening match, as Petr Cech, Granit Xhaka, and Mateo Guendouzi struggled with the high press of Manchester City. Both managers have been complimented for their attacking style of football, and both favour a high defensive line and high press to try and win the ball back quickly if possession is lost. If we see both teams playing with this ideology at the weekend, Lacazette and Aubameyang could potentially use their speed to get in behind the defense. Alternatively Chelsea’s speedy winger could make us pay.
Predicted Line Ups
Chelsea will likely start with the same eleven as last week. Jorghino played well in the holding midfield position, and Kante excelled with the freedom to push forward. Barkley was chosen ahead of Fabregas and Kovacic to round out the midfield and will likely retain his position. The back four pick themselves, and as for the front three the only question is whether Sarri will feel Hazard is ready to start. Hazard was brought on to great effect as a sub in the game against Huddersfield Town, however, he will be looking for a starting role once considered match fit. And of course Arrizabalaga starts in goal.
Arsenal is expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation, but we will hope for a few changes from last week. Starting in goal, Cech did little to justify a starting role, so we will hope to see Bernd Leno given his chance. The back line remains unchanged, assuming Monreal and Maitland-Niles are unfit to slot in at left back. If either of these two are fit they should start ahead of Lichtsteiner.
The defensive midfield and central midfield struggled as a whole last week against Manchester City, and we should see some changes here. Granit Xhaka performed poorly from a defensive point of view and provided little offensively. He looked uncomfortable on the ball as Arsenal tried to build play from the back, and generally lacked the mobility to deal with his defensive tasks. Kante and Barkley will provide pace through the middle for Chelsea who also have pacey wingers in Pedro, Willian, and Hazard. It is difficult to see how Xhaka is going to be able to handle the central players alone never mind cover the flanks as our fullbacks push forward in attack. Guendouzi worked admirably against City, and although he performed better than Xhaka there were still holes in his game. What he lacks in experience he makes up for in work rate though, and as Maitland-Niles who is our only real alternative here is out injured it looks like Guendouzi should start.
The other problem position against city was the number 10 role. Ramsey started in this position, but he played so high up the pitch that it left a huge gap between our defensive midfielders and the forward line. City was able to control this area, leaving it near impossible for us to create much. This positioning also pushed Ozil out to the left, which he has played in the past but never to good effect, and again Ozil looked lost. I’m not convinced Ramsey or Ozil provide the presence needed to control this critical area of the pitch, but I think Ozil is the more creative of the two and so I would favour him to start. If Ramsey retains this role, we should see him sitting back a bit deeper than we did against City, providing better link up play between defense and offence.
If Ramsey does not retain his position as the central attacking midfielder he may be left on the bench. On the wings I would include Aubameyang in order to make room for Lacazette up front. It is critical Auba and Lacazette both play and provide their fire power. On the other wing I am indifferent as to Mhkitaryan or Ramsey starting. As Ramsey has yet failed to sign a contract I would leave him out. Aaron Ramsey‘s failure to sign a new contract has started to annoy me, and Arsenal should be looking at taking a hardline position with the midfielder. Honestly he is replaceable.
The Result
Emery finds himself in a difficult position starting the season against Manchester City and the following week playing away to a strengthened and uplifted Chelsea. Sarri has done well in a short time to right the Chelsea ship, having looked very good in their opening fixture away to Huddersfield Town. Jorghino slotted in seamlessly, the way we will hope Torreira can ease into the Arsenal team, and other than that Chelsea is relatively unchanged. Most pundits will be choosing Chelsea in this one, and given our near complete overhaul of the central defensive positions it is understandable that we are an unpredictable commodity at this point. If Torreira gets his chance and he can reproduce the form he displayed at Sampdoria and the Uruguayan National Team then we have a chance of taking points early in the season, but don’t be too optimistic that will start this weekend. If Lacazette and Aubameyang get their chances however, things could easily go our way. We will find out soon enough!
And of course we are all anticipating the meeting of Mateo Guendouzi and David Luiz to finally see who has the best hair! A picture of the two together will have been worth the short trip to West London.
